Iran's Hormuz Attack Signals Shift in Oil-Chokepoint Calculus

The US struck Iranian military targets in late June 2026 after Iran attacked a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz. Since roughly 20 percent of global traded oil—17 to 21 million barrels daily—transits this chokepoint, the exchange raises urgent questions about whether Tehran's strategic calculus has shifted. Iran threatened Hormuz closure before but historically stopped short of triggering full US retaliation. Energy markets are repricing risk in real time.