Russia's Air Probes Aim at NATO Fractures, Not Territory

Russia's 300+ aircraft approaches to NATO airspace in 2023 were not random incursions. The Belfer Center identifies them as part of a calculated gray zone strategy: applying pressure on the Baltics and Poland while testing whether economic and escalation costs might fracture Alliance consensus. This dual logic—coercing frontline states while dividing member governments—explains why the probing persists without territorial aims.