Supergirl's $18M Tracking Range Signals Streaming Cannibalization Risk

Supergirl's domestic opening tracking has widened to $47M–$65M, a spread that signals real uncertainty about whether audiences will rush to theaters June 26 or wait six weeks for streaming. The gap reflects a critical question tracking models struggle to quantify: casual viewers' willingness to see a superhero tentpole theatrically versus on-demand. Declining social sentiment reinforces the lower-end probability. For Warner Bros., even a $51M opening—down from initial $55M+ estimates—would constrain returns on films carrying $200M+ budgets.