Three Tankers Through Hormuz Is Not Normalization

Washington and Tehran ended their conflict on June 15, reopening the Strait of Hormuz after four months. Iranian tankers resumed passage on June 17. But three ships transiting the Gulf of Oman is proof of concept, not market recovery. Oil prices fell on the news, yet traders watch a harder metric: sustained, unescorted commercial transit at pre-conflict volumes—roughly 140 ships daily. That hasn't returned as of June 24, leaving supply-chain disruptions and insurance repricing unresolved.