July CPI Data Will Determine When RBA Can Cut Rates

Australia's trimmed mean inflation held at 3.6% in May 2026, 60 basis points above the RBA's target band. The central bank held rates at 4.35% on 16 June, signaling it needs proof inflation is durably declining before easing. The June quarter CPI release in late July becomes the pivotal test: if trimmed mean heads toward 3%, the RBA gains the empirical basis to discuss its first cut. A stalled reading prolongs the hold, deepening pressure on deteriorating household balance sheets.