Iran Nuclear Roadmap Reshapes Oil Market Risk Pricing

Iran and the U.S. agreed to a 60-day negotiating framework, with technical talks starting immediately. Markets had priced near-zero odds of sanctions relief within 12 months; this dated milestone shifts that baseline toward relief. Traders are reassessing crude volatility surfaces and the geopolitical risk premium baked into energy and Middle East equities. No deal is certain—Congressional approval and technical hurdles remain formidable—but the distribution of outcomes has moved measurably.