Oil Market Priced Peace Deal Before Tankers Move

The U.S.-Iran peace deal on June 14 triggered a 4%-plus crude oil drop within hours. Yet shipowners signaled on June 16 that actual transit through the Strait of Hormuz wouldn't resume for weeks, citing safety concerns. The speed of the price fall—despite zero additional barrels flowing—shows markets were front-running the deal. Operator confidence, not diplomatic announcements, determines when shipping resumes through this 20% global oil chokepoint.