War Premium Collapse Masks a Physical Supply Crisis

Brent crude has fallen below $80 per barrel despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining largely closed since late February, carrying roughly 20% of global oil consumption. The disconnect reflects traders unwinding initial conflict premiums as they reassess war duration and intensity, not actual supply improvement. Physical stocks can bridge weeks-long disruptions. If closure extends through Q3 2026, seasonal demand peaks and depleted reserves converge into a genuine shortage scenario.