National slides below 30%, Labour now leads on party vote midterm

The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll published 15 June 2026 recorded National below 30% for the first time, with Labour ahead on party vote. The result marks an unusual midterm configuration for a government that won a commanding 2023 mandate. ACT and NZ First both recorded gains, shifting the coalition's internal balance and weakening National's negotiating position within the governing bloc.