Amazon's $4.5 Billion Guidance Range Reveals Real Macro Uncertainty, Not Conservative Padding

Amazon's Q2 2025 operating income guidance—$13.0 to $17.5 billion—is wide enough to encompass both year-over-year contraction and 19% growth. The width matters. Management is flagging genuine uncertainty: tariff exposure on seller inventory, cloud deal timing risk, and currency headwinds that defy precise 90-day modeling. The floor implies earnings decline versus Q2 2024's $14.7 billion; the ceiling suggests acceleration. AWS margin stability and advertising RPMs will determine where actuals land.