Fed Flags Structural Inflation Uncertainty Through Mid-2026

The Federal Reserve's January 2025 research identified commodity price volatility and geopolitical tension as persistent sources of global inflation uncertainty, expected to remain elevated through mid-2026. This framing matters for gold, which gains value when inflation variance widens. The Fed is essentially documenting why the macro case for gold at $4,000 reflects structural conditions rather than speculation—conditions unlikely to resolve in the near term.