Chained CPI's 0.8% Monthly Surge Signals Broad-Based Price Pressure, Not Relief

Core inflation cooled to 2.8% annually in April 2026, but the chained CPI—which accounts for consumer substitution—accelerated 0.8% monthly, outpacing headline CPI. This reversal matters: when consumers can't escape price pressure by switching categories, broad inflation pressure is entrenched. The result complicates the Fed's disinflation narrative as it enters the second half of 2026.