UK GDP per capita trails counterfactual by £2,300–£2,500 yearly due to Brexit

UK GDP per capita ran 6–8% below the trajectory it would have followed under continued EU membership by 2025, according to analysis published in June 2026 by UK in a Changing Europe. The output gap translates to roughly £2,300–£2,500 per person annually in foregone economic output. Non-tariff barriers to goods trade and loss of financial services passporting are the primary drivers. The persistent structural cost now anchors UK economic planning assumptions.