India's Monsoon Forecast Missed by Nine Days, Exceeding Its Error Margin

The India Meteorological Department declared the southwest monsoon's Kerala onset on June 4, 2026—nine days after its May 15 forecast of May 26, and well outside its stated ±4-day error margin. The miss raises questions about extended-range prediction accuracy and whether model biases or communication gaps between probabilistic guidance and operational decision-makers need addressing before the 2027 forecast cycle.