Coalition Drops Below One Nation in Primary Vote for First Time

Australia's Coalition has sunk to 20% primary support in a May 2025 Newspoll—its lowest in a decade and below One Nation's 27% for the first time federally. The shift reflects fragmentation on the center-right as voters disperse toward both One Nation and minor parties. At this level, Coalition infrastructure faces operational stress. The question now is whether preference flows from One Nation to Coalition candidates remain sufficient to protect marginal seats.