Why Gaza Ceasefires Collapse: The Phase Two Problem

Phase one ceasefires are easier to negotiate than phase two because they defer the hard questions: Gaza's governance, Hamas's armed wing, Israeli hostages, and reconstruction. These issues have competing constituencies in Israel, Palestinian politics, Qatar, Egypt, Turkey, and the United States. Negotiations in Miami are testing whether procedural momentum can overcome domestic political opposition. But ceasefire collapses in Gaza have historically come not from failed diplomacy but from events on the ground making continuation politically untenable for one or more parties.